The Field has a gut feeling that Obama will pick Virginia governor Tim Kaine as his running mate. As was predicted three years ago, Virginia has become a true battleground state in the 2008 cycle. FiveThirtyEight currently projects Obama's chances at capturing the state at 47%.

For McCain, there is no real viable victory scenario that does not include Virginia. Even if an Obama/Kaine ticket fell short of taking Virgina, the McCain campaign would be forced to spend oodles of money and resources in keeping it GOP - oodles of money and resources diverted from more "swing"-type states such as Ohio.

Meanwhile, Obama continues to run strong in Colorado (where the Denver Convention likely will give the campaign a further boost) and New Mexico. Currently Obama has what appears to be an even shot in Nevada. These West/Southwest states look promising with or without a West/Southwest running mate, i.e. former New Mexico governor Bill Richardson.

So, if the Obama campaign wants to expand the map, thin out the McCain campaign's resources, and then play offense, a Virginian running mate would be a pretty good idea.