In field polling news as the Democratic Convention in Denver moves into its penultimate evening of speechifying ...
1. Tonight Senator Joe Biden takes the podium. Last night was Senator Hillary Clinton, whose job was to ameliorate apparent dissension among people who voted for Clinton but now either were undecided about Obama or now were voting for McCain. Today at pollster.com, there's an interesting article challenging several polls' assertions that significant amounts of actual Clinton voters are now supporting John McCain. Apparently, these polls' methodologies ain't so good - the "Voted for Hillary, now Voting for McCain" crowd is very likely significantly smaller than polls and GOP spinners suggest.
2. Both Marc Ambinder and Mark Blumenthal report on a conference call involving reporters and Obama campaign manager David Plouffe. In both pieces, Plouffe challenges the conventional wisdom of a "tight" race, but by no means in an overconfident way.
In the Ambinder piece, Plouffe reports that Obama's performance among low-income whites exceeds John Kerry's 2004 performance among low-income whites under 50. Obama underperforms compared to Kerry only among low-income whites over 70. Like I said before ... the divisions in the electorate between Obama and McCain often manifest themselves more generationally than economonically or even racially.
The Blumenthal piece emphasizes the Obama campaign's focus not so much on the top numbers of polls but their internals, and how to integrate the internals into a more effective voter turnout/voter persuasion program. Another good read.
1. Tonight Senator Joe Biden takes the podium. Last night was Senator Hillary Clinton, whose job was to ameliorate apparent dissension among people who voted for Clinton but now either were undecided about Obama or now were voting for McCain. Today at pollster.com, there's an interesting article challenging several polls' assertions that significant amounts of actual Clinton voters are now supporting John McCain. Apparently, these polls' methodologies ain't so good - the "Voted for Hillary, now Voting for McCain" crowd is very likely significantly smaller than polls and GOP spinners suggest.
2. Both Marc Ambinder and Mark Blumenthal report on a conference call involving reporters and Obama campaign manager David Plouffe. In both pieces, Plouffe challenges the conventional wisdom of a "tight" race, but by no means in an overconfident way.
In the Ambinder piece, Plouffe reports that Obama's performance among low-income whites exceeds John Kerry's 2004 performance among low-income whites under 50. Obama underperforms compared to Kerry only among low-income whites over 70. Like I said before ... the divisions in the electorate between Obama and McCain often manifest themselves more generationally than economonically or even racially.
The Blumenthal piece emphasizes the Obama campaign's focus not so much on the top numbers of polls but their internals, and how to integrate the internals into a more effective voter turnout/voter persuasion program. Another good read.
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