So sayeth the Field: Clinton 52.3%, Obama 47.7%; Clinton 81, Obama 77.
So sayeth I: Clinton 53.1%, Obama 45.9%; Clinton 83, Obama 75.
The big wild card out there is the staggering amount of newly-registered Democratic voters. Where and to what extent will these new voters turn out? This kind of wild card can wreak havoc upon pollsters' likely-voter models ... see here, here, here, here and here.
And if you're still not pumped up about Pennsylvania Tuesday, perhaps this will help:
So sayeth I: Clinton 53.1%, Obama 45.9%; Clinton 83, Obama 75.
The big wild card out there is the staggering amount of newly-registered Democratic voters. Where and to what extent will these new voters turn out? This kind of wild card can wreak havoc upon pollsters' likely-voter models ... see here, here, here, here and here.
And if you're still not pumped up about Pennsylvania Tuesday, perhaps this will help:
3 comments:
That video totally reminds me of this video.
Phil Collins '08!
Possible running mate: Peter Gabriel.
Slogan: I can feel it comin' in the air tonight.
Your prediction seems fair. I suspect the margin will be a little bigger though.
I think yesterday's assessment by the Boston Globe is telling.
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/04/obama_moving_on.html
matty -
Links in the past to the radical and controversial Brian Eno likely would sink Collins' candidacy.
tory -
Thanks! Let's see if I'm any better at this than picking Powerball numbers.
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