Matthew Yglesias fashioned a bar chart of the pollster.com averages compared to the actual results in New Hampshire. The averages hit the Edwards and Obama percentages pretty well, but underestimated the Clinton support. Yglesias thinks that perhaps the undecideds broke heavily for Clinton. But in examining the exit poll data, this exhaustive rundown of "What Happened?" indicates otherwise:
The late-breakers broke evenly in proportion to each candidate's final vote total. Clinton's only commanding margin came from voters who had decided more than a month ago. HRC had support that the polls (including, apparently, each candidates' internal polls) simply weren't picking up.
1 comment:
Matthew Yglesias spelled his name wrong, I think. It should be I-glesias, with an I. And the first name should be J-U-L-I-O, with a J, U, L, I, and O, in that order.
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