Snap polls called the debate a victory for Obama. Neither candidate covered much new ground, but my feeling is that this debate and the previous debate have helped solidify Obama's support, in that more and more voters are seeing and becoming comfortable with Obama as a president rather than as merely a candidate.

There was talk that McCain was going to take the proverbially gloves off and attack Obama with the Ayers innuendo. He didn't. Perhaps the "town hall" format didn't feel right for such an attack, or perhaps McCain would rather leave the ugliness to television spots and Sarah Palin.

At any rate, McCain lost ground tonight and he's already behind. The McCain campaign has given up on Michigan, a Kerry state from 2004. The 2004 Bush states of Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico appear firmly within the Obama campaign's grasp. The big 2004 prize, Ohio, is breaking toward Obama, as is the 2000 prize of Florida. But that's just part of the battleground.

Traditional swing states Missouri and Nevada are toss-ups, but so are three states traditionally at the foundation of any Republican victory: Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina. So, the October playing field is much larger than it was in 2004, the well-funded and well-organized Obama campaign is on the offensive, and McCain's performance tonight did nothing to stop the Obama campaign's momentum.

The McCain campaign has a very difficult task over the next three weeks. Not only does it have to make a serious play for Ohio and Florida, and play to win in Missouri and Nevada, it also has to shore-up the traditionally Republican presidential states of Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina. Further complicating matters for the McCain campaign, West Virginia looks like it may move into toss-up status as well. And in each and every one of these states (save perhaps for West Virginia) there is a large and well-organized Obama field operation and plenty of Obama campaign cash for the airwaves. Very difficult for the McCain campaign.

Still one additional difficulty for the McCain campaign, which relies heavily on RNC money rather than its own money: the RNC may decide at any moment to deprioritize the presidential campaign and devote its resources to funding down-ticket congressional and senatorial races. If McCain's prospects continue to appear more and more bleak, I won't be surprised if the RNC bails on McCain in order to try and stave-off a Democratic congressional landslide. The McCain campaign needs to turn things around fast just to survive the next couple of weeks.