It is election day today in some places. New Jersey and Virginia elect governors. NY-23 elects a new member of Congress. Nate Silver writes about the state of the GOP brand in all of these places.

The NY-23 race must have given pollsters fits. Tea Party-backed conservative insurgent Doug Hoffmann appeared to have a slight plurality lead over both moderate Republican Dede Scozzafava and conservative Democrat Bill Owens. This weekend on my way to Nashville I heard on the radio that Scozzafava dropped out. I figured that she got the push in order for the vote not to be split, which would raise a real possibility of a Democrat occupying a seat that has been Republican since like 1850. I thought wrong. GOP former-candidate Scozzafava endorsed Democrat Bill Owens. Now nobody has any clue what's going to happen today. How many Scozzafava supporters will now support Owens? What will turnout look like in general? Every pollster mapping and following this race is in the dark.

Adding to the NY-23 circus is a kind of proxy war between national elements of the hard-right and the soft-right of the GOP. There are even bestiality jokes a-flyin'.

Most polls of the New Jersey Governor's race show a dead-heat between incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine and GOP challenger Chris Christie. Independent Chris Daggett pulls in about 8% of the vote. It seems that every cycle New Jersey looks poised to elect a GOP governor but then it does not pan out. I'll believe it when I see it. Corzine has a huge war chest and a genuine get-out-the-vote operation crucial in close elections. President Obama is making direct appeals to the Democratic base on radio and television on behalf of Corzine. I think that Corzine will have just enough to squeak by to victory. Still, the amount of corruption scandals in New Jersey and consequent anti-incumbency feelings among the NJ electorate should not be underestimated. If I were a betting man and this was a horse-race, I'd take Republican Christie because the pay-out would be better on the odds.

Virginia reprises what for me is its role as the national battleground (see here, and here). Perhaps 2008's biggest coup for the national Democrats was winning Virginia in the presidential race. A Democratic Virginia breaks the back of any GOP victory coalition. While Virginia has elected Democratic governors of late, it appears as if Republican Bob McDonnell is poised for victory. Republicans are smart to push McDonnell as a 2012 presidential candidate. Virginia is crucial to any Republican presidential victory, and having a native son at the top of the ticket could pull the Commonwealth back into the Republican column three years from now.

And if that's not enough election stuff for you, this is on tonight: