Today, Project Vote released a very interesting study comparing the November 2008 national voter turnout to the November 2004 voter turnout. The study found that, nationally, African-American voter turnout increased from 60.3% in 2004 to 65.2% in 2008. Latino turnout increased from 47.3% to 49.7%, and Asian-American turnout increased from 44.5% to 47.8%. The turnout for voters under the age of 30 increased from 49.0% to 51.1%.

But the aggregate national level of turnout remained basically the same between 2004 and 2008. Why? The study finds that turnout rates particularly for white older voters decreased from 2004-2008. This decrease off-set the increases in younger and non-white voter turnout, making for what appears to be a static aggregate from 2004 to 2008.

Thinking about why white older voters turned out at a lower rate in 2008 than 2004, I came up with some hypotheses.

1. There were older white Democratic voters who weren't enthused about Obama, but weren't going to vote for a Republican either, and so they stayed home. The reasons could be race, Obama's association with the "youth vote," etc.

2. There were older white Republican voters who weren't enthused about McCain, but weren't going to vote for a Democrat either, and so they stayed home. The reasons could be McCain's supposed insufficiency as a bona fide "conservative," general low enthusiasm for the GOP in general, Sarah Palin's perceived unseriousness, etc. etc.

3. The 2008 presidential campaign in general did not address senior issues such as Social Security and Medicare with the same frequency as previous campaigns. This led to a less motivated senior vote.

4. Factors such as income-level correlate strongly with senior citizens. If there are more seniors now getting by with less income in 2008 than 2004, and if the lesser the income you have the more likely you won't turn out to vote, then it follows that the senior vote will decrease.

5. A combination of the previous four hypotheses. The classic cop-out.