Retailing is a business with big ups and downs during the year, and retailers rely heavily on borrowed money to finance their purchases of merchandise and even to meet payrolls during slow periods. Yet the nation’s banks, struggling with the growing mortgage crisis, have started to balk at extending new loans, effectively cutting up the retail industry’s collective credit cards.Adding to the problem are still-new excess exurban retail developments adjacent to still-new excess exurban housing. Retail certainly is the economic sector most sensitive to consumer demand. Still, I wouldn't doubt that some of these retail companies were predicting profits from their brand-new exurban stores, and factoring these profits into their future value. The profits aren't materializing, so the value of these retail companies are much less than expected. Along with the housing bubble, there was a retail bubble.
“You have the makings of a wave of significant bankruptcies,” said Al Koch, who helped bring Kmart out of bankruptcy in 2003 as the company’s interim chief financial officer and works at a corporate turnaround firm called AlixPartners.
“For years, no deal was too ugly to finance,” he said. “But now, nobody will throw money at these companies.”
4/15/08
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2 comments:
which makes an everything bubble ... because then you got a lot of municipalities and counties that have issued general obligation bonds based on projected tax revenue from new houses and new sales taxes to fund general operational expenses, not to mention contracted raises/pensions/health plans for municipal/fire/police employees that they can't pay or can't cover because the tax revenue they thought was going to be there isn't there, and now they gotta rework those bonds and go back to market with them and they won't be worth as much now because of the new, depressed revenue figures, and now the muni's more of a credit risk ... and the market for municipal and incentive bonds sucks right now anyway ... it's incredible...
(granted - not every municipality and/or county is in this situation, but too many are.)
PLUS ... a lot of municipalities' pension funds have major investment in the "leveraged debt" mortgages that are worth crap as well. In better times, you could find ways of making up the shortfall in the pension fund - but there's no money to do it.
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